Tyler Conklin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+136/-182).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -162 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -182.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Mike White in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to total 4.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among TEs.
Tyler Conklin's 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 31.7.
Tyler Conklin has been among the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an impressive 3.6 receptions per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.
The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their QB 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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