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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (64.6% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the New York Jets.

Tyler Conklin's 83.2% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a meaningful boost in his passing game usage over last season's 67.7% figure.

The leading projections forecast Tyler Conklin to earn 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.

The Jets offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Jets being a 3-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the Jets to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Tyler Conklin has accrued far fewer air yards this year (26.0 per game) than he did last year (39.0 per game).

The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.5%) versus TEs this year (69.5%).

The Patriots pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in the league.

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