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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New York Jets.

New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats propped up a bit) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some regression with improved conditions in this week's contest.

Tyler Conklin has accumulated a massive 37.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Tyler Conklin rates in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a staggering 32.9 figure since the start of last season.

Tyler Conklin grades out as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 36.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 6 points.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the model to run only 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The Jets offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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