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Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-120).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 63.7% of their chances: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.Tyler Conklin has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (82.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (67.7%).As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the New York Jets grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Miami's safety corps has been lousy this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The projections expect this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The New York Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.7 plays per game.After accumulating 39.0 air yards per game last year, Tyler Conklin has fallen off this year, currently sitting at 22.0 per game.Tyler Conklin has posted quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (25.0) this year than he did last year (36.0).With a bad 6.6 adjusted yards per target (25th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin stands as one of the weakest pass-game TEs in football.
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