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Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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A passing game script is indicated by the Jets being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's game.The model projects the Jets to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.The New York Jets have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football last year, which should lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense effectiveness when facing more favorable conditions in this week's contest.Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.In this week's game, Tyler Conklin is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.7 targets.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Jets are expected by the projections to run just 63.0 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.When it comes to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the worst in football last year.Last year, the tough 49ers defense has given up a feeble 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 8th-fewest in the league.The 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. TEs last year, conceding 6.75 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in football.
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