Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to accrue 4.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Tyler Conklin has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 15.4% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 86th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.