Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Zach Wilson.
The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
A passing game script is suggested by the Jets being a -3-point underdog this week.
At a mere 27.04 seconds per snap, the Jets offense ranks as the 10th-fastest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.
This week, Tyler Conklin is forecasted by the projection model to position himself in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.0 targets.

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being called for in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
When talking about pass protection (and the impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
The Texans pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against TEs this year, surrendering 6.84 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

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