Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Tim Boyle.
The Jets feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jets to pass on 59.8% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 131.6 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
In this game, Tyler Conklin is forecasted by the predictive model to position himself in the 88th percentile among TEs with 4.9 targets.

Favors Under

The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Jets this year (a mere 54.9 per game on average).
When it comes to pass protection (and the effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the worst in football this year.
This year, the fierce Falcons pass defense has conceded the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a puny 3.9 YAC.

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