Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-112/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
The model projects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets as the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Tyler Conklin is expected by our trusted projection set to place in the 83rd percentile among tight ends with 4.9 targets.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the projection model to call only 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Jets this year (just 56.0 per game on average).
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Buffalo's collection of safeties has been great this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the league.

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