Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be starting backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Tyler Conklin has run a route on 75.9% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-least pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.5% pass rate.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Tyler Conklin's receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, notching a measly 4.97 yards-per-target compared to a 7.01 rate last season.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on a lowly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.