Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Tyler Conklin has run a route on 71.5% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the best unit in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on a lowly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.