Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+101/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ +101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to accumulate 5.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Conklin has put up quite a few more air yards this year (45.0 per game) than he did last year (29.0 per game).

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 40.0) vs. TEs this year.
The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.6%) versus tight ends this year (62.6%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus TEs this year, surrendering 6.74 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.

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