Tyler Conklin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+392/-824).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -800 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -824.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (18.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.8% in games he has played).
Tyler Conklin has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (49.0 per game) than he did last year (29.0 per game).
Tyler Conklin's 39.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 31.7.

Favors Under

The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the least TDs through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.00 per game this year.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a measly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.