Tyler Conklin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+374/-762).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +419 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +374.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 69.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 8th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to be a more integral piece of his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (14.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.7% in games he has played).
Tyler Conklin has accrued a colossal 30.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have utilized play action on a mere 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.