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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions

Tyler Conklin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+432/-978).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +438 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +432.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The New York Jets have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game near the end zone this week (12.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.8% in games he has played).

Tyler Conklin has posted many more air yards this year (40.0 per game) than he did last year (29.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a measly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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