Tyler Conklin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+357/-703).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -565 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -703.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game near the goal line this week (13.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.9% in games he has played).
Tyler Conklin has posted many more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (29.0 per game).
Tyler Conklin's 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 31.7.
Tyler Conklin ranks in the 86th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.30 per game.
The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their QB 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Chicago Bears safeties profile as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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