Tyler Boyd Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
With a high 91.4% Route% (87th percentile) this year, Tyler Boyd places as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.
Tyler Boyd's receiving performance has gotten a boost this year, totaling 4.7 adjusted receptions vs a mere 3.7 last year.
Tyler Boyd's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 73.6% to 77.8%.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.1 per game) this year.
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Buffalo's unit has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.

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