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Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-145).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -145.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The model projects the Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.In this game, Tyler Boyd is projected by the predictive model to land in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.9 targets.Tyler Boyd's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 34.3.The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are projected by the model to call just 61.2 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.Tyler Boyd's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 73.6% to 65.4%.
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