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Tyler Boyd

Tyler Boyd Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup QB Jake Browning in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Bengals are a big 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.4% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.

Tyler Boyd checks in as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an outstanding 4.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Tyler Boyd profiles as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in an exceptional 74.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.

Tyler Boyd's 80.7% snap rate this year represents a noteworthy progression in his offensive utilization over last year's 63.1% figure.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.

This year, the tough Chiefs defense has conceded a measly 61.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 7th-best rate in the league.

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