Tyler Boyd Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.
Tyler Boyd has run a route on 91.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
In this contest, Tyler Boyd is forecasted by the projection model to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.2 targets.
With an impressive 4.4 adjusted catches per game (78th percentile) this year, Tyler Boyd ranks as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Houston's collection of CBs has been very good this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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