Tyler Boyd Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Tyler Boyd has been much less involved in his team's offense this season, staying in the game for just 62.7% of snaps vs 76.1% last season.
The New England Patriots pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Tyler Boyd's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 76.7% to 73.1%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (62%) vs. wideouts this year (62.0%).

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