Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:56 AM EST

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
With a high 91.4% Route% (87th percentile) this year, Tyler Boyd places as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.
Tyler Boyd's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 73.6% to 77.8%.
The Bills pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (76.5%) versus WRs this year (76.5%).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.1 per game) this year.
After totaling 47.0 air yards per game last season, Tyler Boyd has produced significantly fewer this season, now averaging 37.0 per game.
Tyler Boyd's 38.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year marks a remarkable decrease in his receiving talent over last year's 48.0 mark.
Tyler Boyd's 6.3 adjusted yards per target this season marks a significant drop-off in his receiving ability over last season's 9.7 rate.

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