Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 9:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.
Tyler Boyd has run a route on 91.1% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
The Tennessee Titans defense has been torched for the most receiving yards per game in the NFL (184.0) vs. WRs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 119.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Tyler Boyd's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 73.6% to 79.2%.
Tyler Boyd's pass-game efficiency has declined this season, averaging a measly 5.37 yards-per-target vs a 9.66 rate last season.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 2.86 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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