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Tyler Boyd

Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup QB Jake Browning in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Bengals are a big 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.4% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.

Tyler Boyd profiles as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in an exceptional 74.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's unit has been terrible this year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.

Tyler Boyd's 80.7% snap rate this year represents a noteworthy progression in his offensive utilization over last year's 63.1% figure.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.

Tyler Boyd's pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, averaging a mere 7.20 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.66 rate last year.

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