Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.
Tyler Boyd has run a route on 91.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
In this contest, Tyler Boyd is forecasted by the projection model to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.2 targets.
Tyler Boyd comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL, catching a terrific 75.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 86th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
After totaling 47.0 air yards per game last season, Tyler Boyd has seen a big decline this season, currently boasting 42.0 per game.
Tyler Boyd's 6.7 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a significant drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last year's 9.7 rate.
The Houston Texans pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.49 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

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