Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Tyler Boyd has been a less important option in his team's offense this year, playing on just 61.9% of snaps compared to 76.1% last year.
Tyler Boyd has put up quite a few more air yards this season (48.0 per game) than he did last season (38.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Tyler Boyd's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 76.7% to 73.7%.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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