Tyler Boyd Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Nov 1, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+159/-224).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +161 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +159.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 64.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Boyd to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (17.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.8% in games he has played).
Tyler Boyd has totaled significantly more air yards this year (57.0 per game) than he did last year (42.0 per game).
Tyler Boyd's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 74.5% to 78.7%.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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