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Tyler Boyd

Tyler Boyd Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Tyler Boyd Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+258/-424).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +280 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +258.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Tyler Boyd has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL, catching a stellar 74.0% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
  • The New York Jets pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Completion% in football (68.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (68.5%).
  • The New York Jets linebackers profile as the worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
  • The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized play action on a measly 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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