Tyler Boyd Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+237/-376).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -363 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -376.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Tyler Boyd has accrued far more air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (38.0 per game).
Tyler Boyd ranks in the 82nd percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.36 per game.

Favors Under

Tyler Boyd's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 76.7% to 71.1%.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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