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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+285/-330).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +280 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +285.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

Our trusted projections expect Tyler Allgeier to be much less involved in his offense's running game near the end zone in this week's contest (24.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).

Tyler Allgeier rates as one of the best possession receivers in football when it comes to RBs, catching an exceptional 93.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 76th percentile.

When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Washington's unit has been great since the start of last season, grading out as the best in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 48.0% red zone run rate.

The Falcons offense has played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

The predictive model expects Tyler Allgeier to be a much smaller piece of his team's pass game near the goal line in this game (2.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).

More Tyler Allgeier Player Props

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