Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Out of all running backs, Tyler Allgeier grades out in the 80th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 42.3% of the workload in his team's run game.
When talking about run support (and the influence it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL last year.
The Commanders defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 4.74 adjusted yards-per-carry.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Washington's unit has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Tyler Allgeier has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).
Tyler Allgeier's 2.9 adjusted yards per carry this season reflects a a noteworthy regression in his rushing skills over last season's 5.0 figure.

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