Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 46.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 130.4 plays on offense run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
Tyler Allgeier has garnered 39.8% of his team's carries this year, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
The Falcons O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL last year at blocking for rushers.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Houston's group of DTs has been lousy this year, grading out as the worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Tyler Allgeier has run for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).
Tyler Allgeier's 3.2 adjusted yards per carry this season illustrates a a substantial reduction in his running prowess over last season's 5.0 mark.

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