Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 4:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+104/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Falcons as the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 47.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Falcons to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tyler Allgeier has earned 41.9% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Tyler Allgeier has averaged 62.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in football when it comes to RBs (88th percentile).

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
Tyler Allgeier's running efficiency has worsened this year, averaging a measly 3.44 yards-per-carry vs a 4.95 rate last year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, yielding just 4.26 yards-per-carry.

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