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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (+100/-130).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to run on 45.4% of their opportunities: the 10th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are expected by the projection model to call 70.0 offensive plays in this game: the highest number among all teams this week.

Tyler Allgeier's 28.8% snap rate this year shows a material decrease in his offensive volume over last year's 51.1% figure.

The Atlanta O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL last year at blocking for rushers.

This year, the daunting New Orleans Saints run defense has allowed a mere 4.61 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 23rd-smallest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Tyler Allgeier has rushed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (41.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).

Tyler Allgeier's rushing effectiveness has tailed off this year, totaling just 3.63 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.95 mark last year.

As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, New Orleans's collection of LBs has been very good this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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