Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 50.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the league this year with their run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.39 seconds per play.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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