Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 1:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 44.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (42.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (30.0% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Tyler Allgeier's ground effectiveness (5.26 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (79th percentile among RBs).

Favors Under

The Falcons are a giant 10-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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