Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles rank as the 6th-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have run for the 9th-least yards in the NFL (just 103 per game) versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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