Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 79.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 70.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 79.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to accumulate 19.3 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (52.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 54.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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