Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to garner 14.0 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Tyler Allgeier has picked up 57.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (78th percentile).

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.6 plays per game.
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 86 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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