Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Tyler Allgeier has been among the top RBs in the league at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.21 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 77th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints defense has produced the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 4.81 yards-per-carry.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends project as the 7th-best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.

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