Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Tyler Allgeier has grinded out 53.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (78th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 5th-most yards in the NFL (145 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to be much less involved in his offense's run game this week (26.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.5% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.