Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+246/-396).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -369 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -396.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 52.6% red zone run rate.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.10 seconds per play.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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