Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+196/-292).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +212 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +196.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 49.4% red zone run rate.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the league this year with their run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.39 seconds per play.
Tyler Allgeier has rushed for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest marks in the league among RBs (1st percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-least TDs in the league (0.33 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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