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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+209/-320).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +218 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +209.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-most run-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 46.0% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the end zone this week (33.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (21.1% in games he has played).

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Falcons are a giant 10-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.

Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.50 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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