Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-681).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +359 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +350.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 44.9% red zone run rate.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles rank as the 6th-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (16.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (34.8% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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