Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+263/-422).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -350 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -422.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 56.0% red zone run rate.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.7 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends project as the 7th-best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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