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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 10

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+336/-636).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -466 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -636.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 52.4% red zone run rate.

The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.

Opposing squads have run for the 5th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.33 per game) versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year.

The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.7 plays per game.

The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.

The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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