Tyler Allgeier Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +177 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
This year, the weak Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been gouged for a monstrous 95.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Tyler Allgeier has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (20.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (39.1%).
Tyler Allgeier's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 93.7% to 74.1%.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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