Tyler Allgeier Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 4:36 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Falcons to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive ends project as the 2nd-worst collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
Tyler Allgeier's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 93.7% to 82.6%.

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