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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-135/+105).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are expected by the projection model to call 70.0 offensive plays in this game: the highest number among all teams this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

When it comes to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Tyler Allgeier has been used less as a potential target this year (17.4% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (39.1%).

Tyler Allgeier is positioned as one of the worst pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a mere 0.9 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 24th percentile among running backs.

Tyler Allgeier's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 93.7% to 75.4%.

This year, the daunting Saints defense has conceded a puny 72.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.

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